portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; text-align: center;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋;">

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋;"> portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋;"> portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 24px; font-family: 仿宋;">中国和印度既是世界茶叶生产大国，又是世界上主要的茶叶消费国，大部分茶叶在国内市场消费。portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 24px;">2015portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 24px; font-family: 仿宋;">年中国茶叶消费总量为portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 24px;">182.2portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 24px; font-family: 仿宋;">万吨，居世界第一位，占世界茶叶消费总量的portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 24px;">36.85%portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 24px; font-family: 仿宋;">。其次是印度，其茶叶消费量为portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 24px;">94.7portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 24px; font-family: 仿宋;">万吨，中国和印度的消费量合占世界总消费量的portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 24px;">56%portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 24px; font-family: 仿宋;">，见表portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">4portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 24px;">。其他茶叶主产国肯尼亚和斯里兰卡的茶叶大部分供出口，本国茶叶消费非常低，2015portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 24px; font-family: 仿宋;">年分别为portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">3.3portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 24px;">万吨和portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2.8portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 24px;">万吨。portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">其他茶叶消费国中，孟加拉、伊朗、摩洛哥、阿富汗、中国台湾、伊拉克、波兰的茶叶消费量分别为7.4portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 24px; font-family: 仿宋;">、portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 24px;">6.3portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 24px; font-family: 仿宋;">、portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 24px;">5.8portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 24px; font-family: 仿宋;">、portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 24px;">5.3portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 24px; font-family: 仿宋;">、portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 24px;">4.0portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 24px; font-family: 仿宋;">、portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 24px;">3.6portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 24px; font-family: 仿宋;">、portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 24px;">3.4portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 24px; font-family: 仿宋;">万吨。

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; text-align: center;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 24px; font-family: 仿宋;">

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 24px; font-family: 仿宋;">

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋;"> portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋;"> 从人均消费情况来看，portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; background: rgb(217, 217, 217);">全球茶叶生产大国中国、印度、肯尼亚的人均消费量都很低，portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; background: rgb(217, 217, 217);">2012-2014portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋; background: rgb(217, 217, 217);">年人均消费茶叶分别为portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">1.14portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋; background: rgb(217, 217, 217);">公斤、portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; background: rgb(217, 217, 217);">0.74portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋; background: rgb(217, 217, 217);">公斤和portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; background: rgb(217, 217, 217);">0.65portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋; background: rgb(217, 217, 217);">公斤，portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋;">印度尼西亚则更低，仅为0.34portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋;">公斤，见表5portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋;">。

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋;">

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;" />

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋;">

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 华文中宋; font-size: 20px;">五、发展趋势预测

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;">FAO-IGGportant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋;">秘书处根据世界茶叶模型（FAO World Tea Modelportant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋;">），运用局部均衡动态时间序列模型对2024portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋;">年世界红茶和绿茶产量、红茶消费量、红茶和绿茶的出口量进行预测，发现portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; background: rgb(217, 217, 217);">世界红茶和绿茶产量将分别以每年portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; background: rgb(217, 217, 217);">3.7%portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋; background: rgb(217, 217, 217);">和portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; background: rgb(217, 217, 217);">9.1%portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋; background: rgb(217, 217, 217);">的速度增长portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋;">，portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; background: rgb(217, 217, 217);">到portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; background: rgb(217, 217, 217);">2024portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋; background: rgb(217, 217, 217);">年全球红茶和绿茶的产量将分别达到portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; background: rgb(217, 217, 217);">429.48portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋; background: rgb(217, 217, 217);">和portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; background: rgb(217, 217, 217);">374.36portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋; background: rgb(217, 217, 217);">万吨；全球红茶消费量将以portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">3%portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋; background: rgb(217, 217, 217);">的速度增长，至portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2023portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋; background: rgb(217, 217, 217);">年将达到portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; background: rgb(217, 217, 217);">414portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋; background: rgb(217, 217, 217);">万吨portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋;">；未来十年世界茶叶生产国消费量的强劲增长并不能抵消茶叶传统进口国消费量的减少；portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; background: rgb(217, 217, 217);">世界红茶和绿茶出口量将分别以每年portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; background: rgb(217, 217, 217);">2.4%portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋; background: rgb(217, 217, 217);">和portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; background: rgb(217, 217, 217);">8.9%portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋; background: rgb(217, 217, 217);">的速度增长，至portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2024portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋; background: rgb(217, 217, 217);">年分别达到portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; background: rgb(217, 217, 217);">170.23portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋; background: rgb(217, 217, 217);">万吨和portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; background: rgb(217, 217, 217);">80.43portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋; background: rgb(217, 217, 217);">万吨。

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">综上，2015portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">年全球茶叶产销总体形势表现为，全球茶叶产量、消费量均保持稳步上升的趋势，而全球茶叶出口量继续降低，但从总体的产销对比情况看基本稳定；从联合国茶叶综合价格来看，全球茶叶市场的价格回升；增加全球茶叶消费仍有潜力可挖。（来源：茶业智库 作者：张菲、陈富桥）

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