portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 华文中宋; font-size: 20px;">二、茶叶出口贸易

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋;">近年来，国际茶叶出口贸易稳中有增，但portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋;">相对产量增长来说，茶叶出口量增长不快portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋;">，见portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 24px; font-family: 仿宋;">图portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 24px;">2portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋;">。

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋;">

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋;">图2 portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 24px;"> portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 24px; font-family: 仿宋;">世界茶叶出口贸易情况

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; background: rgb(217, 217, 217);">2015portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; background: rgb(217, 217, 217);">年全球茶叶出口量为175.7万吨，占全球茶叶总产量的34%，比2014年的182.7万吨下降了3.83%。portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">目前世界上portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; background: rgb(217, 217, 217);">第一大茶叶出口国为肯尼亚，2015年的出口量为44.3万吨，占全球茶叶出口量的25%portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">，尽管其出口量比2014portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">年的49.9portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">万吨减少了11.2%portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">，但由于全球茶叶价格比去年提高，肯尼亚茶叶出口额从2014portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">年的1011portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">亿portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">KSHportant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">（肯尼亚先令）增加到2015portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">年的1252portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">亿KSHportant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">，增长了23.8%portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">。2015portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">年全球portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; background: rgb(217, 217, 217);">第二大茶叶出口国是中国大陆，茶叶出口量为32.5万吨，占全球茶叶出口量的18%，第三是斯里兰卡，占全球茶叶出口量的17%，第四是印度，占全球茶叶出口量的12%portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">，见图3portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">。

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋;">

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋;">从世界范围看，整个portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋; background: rgb(217, 217, 217);">亚洲茶叶出口量占全球茶叶出口量的60%左右portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋;">，portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋;">非洲茶叶出口量大约占全球茶叶出口量的35%portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋;">，其他国家和地区的出口量仅占全球出口量的5%portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋;">左右。从国家来看，印度的茶叶出口量为22.1portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋;">万吨，比2014portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">年的20.5portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋;">万吨增加了1.6portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋;">万吨，即增加了7.8%portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">；印度茶叶最大的出口国依然是俄罗斯，占印度总出口量的21%portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋;">。越南的茶叶出口量自2012portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋;">年不断减少，2015portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋;">年茶叶出口量为12.3portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">万吨，比2012portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋;">年的14.4portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋;">万吨减少了14.58%portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">。斯里兰卡茶叶出口量骤降至2010portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋;">年的水平，为30.7portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋;">万吨（表2portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋;">），从斯里兰卡近三年主要茶叶出口国变动情况来看，主要是受政治局势的影响，出口到叙利亚、伊朗、乌克兰的茶叶量减少幅度较大（表3portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋;">）。

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋;">

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;" />

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 华文中宋; font-size: 20px;">三、茶叶价格

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋;">作为世界茶叶市场的指示性价格，FAOportant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">茶叶综合价格在过去十年一直保持稳定，直到2014portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋;">年由于CTCportant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">红碎茶价格下降导致全球茶叶综合价格大幅度下降，而Orthodoxportant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋;">茶（传统茶）价格坚挺，这部分地抵消了CTCportant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋;">茶价格下降的负面效应，最终2014portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋;">年全球茶叶综合价格比上一年降低了2.45%portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋;">。portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋; background: rgb(217, 217, 217);">2015portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋;">年却出现了相反的情况，由于油价降低，俄罗斯和近东地区的经济受挫，导致其需求减少，从而使传统茶的价格下跌portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋;">，2015portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋;">年茶叶综合价格较上一年略有提高，但幅度不大（见图4portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋;">）。

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 24px; font-family: 仿宋;">

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 华文中宋; font-size: 20px;">四、茶叶消费

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋;">随着国内外学者对茶与健康研究的不断推进，以及各国对茶叶保健功能的推广与宣传，portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋;">全球茶叶消费量呈上升趋势，由2006年的357.3万吨增加到了2015年的portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">494.4万吨，增长了38.37%，portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋;">见图6portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋;">。

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; text-align: center;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋;">

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋;"> portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋;"> portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 24px; font-family: 仿宋;">中国和印度既是世界茶叶生产大国，又是世界上主要的茶叶消费国，大部分茶叶在国内市场消费。portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 24px;">2015portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 24px; font-family: 仿宋;">年中国茶叶消费总量为portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 24px;">182.2portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 24px; font-family: 仿宋;">万吨，居世界第一位，占世界茶叶消费总量的portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 24px;">36.85%portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 24px; font-family: 仿宋;">。其次是印度，其茶叶消费量为portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 24px;">94.7portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 24px; font-family: 仿宋;">万吨，中国和印度的消费量合占世界总消费量的portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 24px;">56%portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 24px; font-family: 仿宋;">，见表portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">4portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 24px;">。其他茶叶主产国肯尼亚和斯里兰卡的茶叶大部分供出口，本国茶叶消费非常低，2015portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 24px; font-family: 仿宋;">年分别为portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">3.3portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 24px;">万吨和portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2.8portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 24px;">万吨。portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">其他茶叶消费国中，孟加拉、伊朗、摩洛哥、阿富汗、中国台湾、伊拉克、波兰的茶叶消费量分别为7.4portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 24px; font-family: 仿宋;">、portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 24px;">6.3portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 24px; font-family: 仿宋;">、portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 24px;">5.8portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 24px; font-family: 仿宋;">、portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 24px;">5.3portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 24px; font-family: 仿宋;">、portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 24px;">4.0portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 24px; font-family: 仿宋;">、portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 24px;">3.6portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 24px; font-family: 仿宋;">、portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 24px;">3.4portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 24px; font-family: 仿宋;">万吨。

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; text-align: center;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 24px; font-family: 仿宋;">

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 24px; font-family: 仿宋;">

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋;"> portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋;"> 从人均消费情况来看，portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; background: rgb(217, 217, 217);">全球茶叶生产大国中国、印度、肯尼亚的人均消费量都很低，portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; background: rgb(217, 217, 217);">2012-2014portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋; background: rgb(217, 217, 217);">年人均消费茶叶分别为portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">1.14portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋; background: rgb(217, 217, 217);">公斤、portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; background: rgb(217, 217, 217);">0.74portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋; background: rgb(217, 217, 217);">公斤和portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; background: rgb(217, 217, 217);">0.65portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋; background: rgb(217, 217, 217);">公斤，portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋;">印度尼西亚则更低，仅为0.34portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋;">公斤，见表5portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋;">。

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋;">

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;" />

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋;">

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 华文中宋; font-size: 20px;">五、发展趋势预测

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;">FAO-IGGportant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋;">秘书处根据世界茶叶模型（FAO World Tea Modelportant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋;">），运用局部均衡动态时间序列模型对2024portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋;">年世界红茶和绿茶产量、红茶消费量、红茶和绿茶的出口量进行预测，发现portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; background: rgb(217, 217, 217);">世界红茶和绿茶产量将分别以每年portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; background: rgb(217, 217, 217);">3.7%portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋; background: rgb(217, 217, 217);">和portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; background: rgb(217, 217, 217);">9.1%portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋; background: rgb(217, 217, 217);">的速度增长portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋;">，portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; background: rgb(217, 217, 217);">到portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; background: rgb(217, 217, 217);">2024portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋; background: rgb(217, 217, 217);">年全球红茶和绿茶的产量将分别达到portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; background: rgb(217, 217, 217);">429.48portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋; background: rgb(217, 217, 217);">和portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; background: rgb(217, 217, 217);">374.36portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋; background: rgb(217, 217, 217);">万吨；全球红茶消费量将以portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">3%portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋; background: rgb(217, 217, 217);">的速度增长，至portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2023portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋; background: rgb(217, 217, 217);">年将达到portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; background: rgb(217, 217, 217);">414portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋; background: rgb(217, 217, 217);">万吨portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋;">；未来十年世界茶叶生产国消费量的强劲增长并不能抵消茶叶传统进口国消费量的减少；portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; background: rgb(217, 217, 217);">世界红茶和绿茶出口量将分别以每年portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; background: rgb(217, 217, 217);">2.4%portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋; background: rgb(217, 217, 217);">和portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; background: rgb(217, 217, 217);">8.9%portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋; background: rgb(217, 217, 217);">的速度增长，至portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2024portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋; background: rgb(217, 217, 217);">年分别达到portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; background: rgb(217, 217, 217);">170.23portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋; background: rgb(217, 217, 217);">万吨和portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; background: rgb(217, 217, 217);">80.43portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 仿宋; background: rgb(217, 217, 217);">万吨。

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">综上，2015portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">年全球茶叶产销总体形势表现为，全球茶叶产量、消费量均保持稳步上升的趋势，而全球茶叶出口量继续降低，但从总体的产销对比情况看基本稳定；从联合国茶叶综合价格来看，全球茶叶市场的价格回升；增加全球茶叶消费仍有潜力可挖。（来源：茶业智库 作者：张菲、陈富桥）

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